Gambling on the FA Cup
Having had another successul FA Cup Weekend making 16% profit on our predictions we wanted to take an early look as to how our Cup Prediction Experiment is going.
It isn't easy to make money from gamblingon the FA Cup. Currently there are two extra variables that have significant effect on the game that arent part of the formula for leagues games.
- Team selection
- League Silos
Team Selection is an ubvious headache for the active football punter. Many so called big team mamangers often anf frequencylt can make up to 8 changes to the starting 11 from the previous league game. Whilst they have every right to do so and everyone enjoys seeing the potential young blood that will bring success in the future, it is a real pain when there is money at stake.
Trying to get meaningfult statistics on a team that has never played competitvely before is still out of the question. Applying the patterns formed with the standard league team to the makeshift FA Cup team is risky. You have to ask yourself, why would this, almost completely different team, behave in a similar manner?
To answer this question and similar ones, Football in Cider introduced the only cup game to its predictions, the FA Cup. We wanted to appy our very siccessful league tips to the FA Cup to see how they would go. With the assumption that they would perform lower than the league predictions we were interested to see if it would be possible to make changes so that Cup games were also profiable.
We wondered if we might have to drill down to players stats. Manager stats. Squad statistics such as moral, fitness, training patterns. Use statistics that apply to the club rather than the starting 11.
The second issue prediction Cup games is League Silos. Cup games, particulaly in the English FA Cup, pit teams from many leagues all of different unmeasurable qualitites. How does an inform Championship team fair against a relegation threatened Premier team? How does a phyisical side in a lower division play against a skilled side in a higher division? These sort of questions should be able to be answered with stats, although most answers you hear will never be fact based, and at based, based on 1 or 2 games rather than statitisticalk analysis.
We have all heard of upsets in the FA Cup and each year we get to see a few more. To the team in in the languishing in the lower leagues that manages to sling and down a Golliath it brings world attention, 15 minutes of fame and most importantly a tidy financial bionus. These games stick in our mind for good reasons, however, as a non emotive gambler that only uses facts to make financial decisions we must ignore these and focus on our data, or at least the computer output than collects and analyses the data for us.
FA Cup Results
So, what have we found?
Well, we found that with no changes the performance of prediction FA Cup games compared to the Premier league games were similar! In fact slightly better.
For a simialr number of games the Premier league has turned $100 in to $181.05 where as the FA Cup returned $186.32. An amazing stat!
This stat could mean many things of course. Maybe our premier league predictions are perfomring far worse than we wanted meaning the FA Cup is just performing not as bad? ( We dont think so, but we have to be independent). Maybe we should be using a longer timespan? Maybe we should compare against all leagues?
Well it is early days. Shortly we will have a league table of how each league, and the FA Cup, perform finaancially with our tips. We will also be bring the same tables in for each team. At this point we will sit down and revisit the FA Cup. For now though, we are just happoy that we predicted Millwall to beat Fulham as a Top Tip in the last round and also another Top Tip for Millwall to win again against Leicester yesterday. We know a few of you that trusted and backed us making a significant impact on your bottom line profits with odds of 3 to 1. We wont mention Man City drawing to Huddersfiled or Lincoln beating Burnley as these werent Top Tips
So FA Cup predictions are proving a success and we will continue to publish them. Other cup games in England and abroad will have to wait until further anlysis. We will keep you informed and also look forward to any of your feedback on the Football in Cider forum